Coherent systems based on sequential order statistics

The sequential order statistics (SOS) are a good way to model the lifetimes of the components in a system when the failure of a component at time t affects the performance of the working components at this age t. In this article, we study properties of the lifetimes of the coherent systems obtained using SOS. Specifically, we obtain a mixture representation based on the signature of the system. This representation is used to obtain stochastic comparisons. To get these comparisons, we obtain some ordering properties for the SOS, which in this context represent the lifetimes of k‐out‐of‐n systems. In particular, we show that they are not necessarily hazard rate ordered. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于混合数据挖掘模型预测用户流失

用户流失预测问题广泛应用在银行、金融、电信等多种领域。对用户行为进行有效的预测和分析有助于企业的竞争和了解瞬息万变的市场规律。采用3种混合的数据挖掘模型对用户流失问题进行了研究,以形成一个准确高效的用户流失预测模型。这3种模型应用于数据挖掘的两个阶段:聚类阶段和预测分析阶段。在第1阶段中,对用户的数据进行过滤。第2阶段对用户行为进行预测。第1个模型采用了二分k-means算法进行数据过滤和多层感知人工神经网络(MLP-ANN)相结合进行预测。第2个模型采用层次化聚类与MLP–ANN相结合进行预测。第3个模型使用自组织映射(Self-Organizing Maps)与MLP-ANN进行预测。这3种模型预测分析基于真实数据,用户流失率采用3种模型混合计算的方式得出结果并同真实值进行比较。分析结果表明采用多模型的混合数据挖掘模型的数据准确度优于普通的单一模型。     

面向语义的作战命令形式化描述及本体构建

作战命令是联系C2系统与M&S系统之间的重要纽带。为保证进行联合作战训练的C2系统与M&S系统对作战命令具备一致的理解和认识,需要对作战命令进行统一的描述。首先从作战命令的形式化描述入手,在描述的基础上形成了作战命令本体,然后介绍作战命令本体构建方法九步法。最后,对作战命令本体进行了构建,为下一步利用基于本体的作战命令驱动仿真模型的研究打下良好的基础。     

Properties of a mean residual life function arising from renewal theory

The present article discusses the properties of the mean residual life function in a renewal process. We examine the relationship this function has with the failure rate function and the conventional mean, variance and coefficient of variation of residual life. We also discuss some monotonicity properties of the mean residual life function. A partial order based on the renewal mean residual function is introduced along with its interrelationship with some existing stochastic orders. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

论先秦儒家社会秩序思想

身处动乱年代的先秦儒家,尤其强调秩序的可贵,希望借礼乐的倡导与宏扬,恢复“三代”盛世的理想秩序。     

Coordinated scheduling of customer orders for quick response

The scheduling problem addressed in this paper concerns a manufacturer who produces a variety of product types and operates in a make‐to‐order environment. Each customer order consists of known quantities of the different product types, and must be delivered as a single shipment. Periodically the manufacturer schedules the accumulated and unscheduled customer orders. Instances of this problem occur across industries in manufacturing as well as in service environments. In this paper we show that the problem of minimizing the weighted sum of customer order delivery times is unary NP‐hard. We characterize the optimal schedule, solve several special cases of the problem, derive tight lower bounds, and propose several heuristic solutions. We report the results of a set of computational experiments to evaluate the lower bounding procedures and the heuristics, and to determine optimal solutions. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Algorithms for computing waiting time distributions under different queue disciplines for the D-BMAP/PH/1

A queueing system characterized by the discrete batch Markovian arrival process (D-BMAP) and a probability of phase type distribution for the service time is one that arises frequently in the area of telecommunications. Under this arrival process and service time distribution we derive the waiting time distribution for three queue disciplines: first in first out (FIFO), last in first out (LIFO), and service in random order (SIRO). We also outline efficient algorithmic procedures for computing the waiting time distributions under each discipline. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 559–576, 1997     

Synchronizing pricing and replenishment to serve forward-looking customers

We incorporate strategic customer waiting behavior in the classical economic order quantity (EOQ) setting. The seller determines not only the timing and quantities of the inventory replenishment, but also the selling prices over time. While similar ideas of market segmentation and intertemporal price discrimination can be carried over from the travel industries to other industries, inventory replenishment considerations common to retail outlets and supermarkets introduce additional features to the optimal pricing scheme. Specifically, our study provides concrete managerial recommendations that are against the conventional wisdom on “everyday low price” (EDLP) versus “high-low pricing” (Hi-Lo). We show that in the presence of inventory costs and strategic customers, Hi-Lo instead of EDLP is optimal when customers have homogeneous valuations. This result suggests that because of strategic customer behavior, the seller obtains a new source of flexibility—the ability to induce customers to wait—which always leads to a strictly positive increase of the seller's profit. Moreover, the optimal inventory policy may feature a dry period with zero inventory, but this period does not necessarily result in a loss of sales as customers strategically wait for the upcoming promotion. Furthermore, we derive the solution approach for the optimal policy under heterogeneous customer valuation setting. Under the optimal policy, the replenishments and price promotions are synchronized, and the seller adopts high selling prices when the inventory level is low and plans a discontinuous price discount at the replenishment point when inventory is the highest.     

A refined deterministic linear program for the network revenue management problem with customer choice behavior

We present a new deterministic linear program for the network revenue management problem with customer choice behavior. The novel aspect of our linear program is that it naturally generates bid prices that depend on how much time is left until the time of departure. Similar to the earlier linear program used by van Ryzin and Liu (2004), the optimal objective value of our linear program provides an upper bound on the optimal total expected revenue over the planning horizon. In addition, the percent gap between the optimal objective value of our linear program and the optimal total expected revenue diminishes in an asymptotic regime where the leg capacities and the number of time periods in the planning horizon increase linearly with the same rate. Computational experiments indicate that when compared with the linear program that appears in the existing literature, our linear program can provide tighter upper bounds, and the control policies that are based on our linear program can obtain higher total expected revenues. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Improving series and parallel systems through mixtures of duplicated dependent components

We discuss suitable conditions such that the lifetime of a series or of a parallel system formed by two components having nonindependent lifetimes may be stochastically improved by replacing the lifetimes of each of the components by an independent mixture of the individual components' lifetimes. We also characterize the classes of bivariate distributions where this phenomenon arises through a new weak dependence notion. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011